Hit chance (XC3)

The hit chance is the probability that any single hit of an attack will land. In Xenoblade Chronicles 3, many factors go into this calculation.

In the following, "source" refers to the character inflicting the attack, and "target" refers to the character being attacked.

In brief
Hit chance mostly depends upon the source's, the target's , any increased chance to hit that the attack has, the source's bonuses to accuracy, and the target's bonuses to evasion. The formula is (approximately) as follows: HitChance = 0.75 * (Dexterity/Agility) * (1 + ArtHitModifier) * (1 + Accuracy - EvasionGroup1) * (1 - EvasionGroup2) If the result is above 0.97, it is brought down to 0.97; if it is below 0, it is brought up to 0.

Here, ArtHitModifier is whatever increase or decrease in hit chance is particular to the being used. Accuracy is the sum of all bonuses to accuracy, EvasionGroup1 is the sum of almost all bonuses to evasion, and EvasionGroup2 is the sum of a handful of other bonuses (see below for details).

Technical details
The full hit chance calculation is as follows: IntermediateChance1 = max(0.0, min(0.97, 0.75 * (Dexterity / Agility) * (1 + ArtHitModifier))) IntermediateChance2 = IntermediateChance1 * (1.0 + sum of Accuracy - sum of EvasionGroup1) IntermediateChance3 = max(min(0.015, IntermediateChance1), min(0.97, IntermediateChance2))

HitChance = IntermediateChance3 * (1.0 - sum of EvasionGroup2) This is almost identical to the formula above, but with subtle behaviour around hit chances close to 1.5% and to 97%. In most circumstances, these can be ignored. ArtHitModifier, ', and ' are as above.

Accuracy
Accuracy is a property of the source. It combines all effects that increase or decrease the target's accuracy (not to be confused with dexterity, which is independent). This includes s and s such as /Accuracy Down, s such as Swiftsong, and other similarly-worded effects.

Evasion group 1 (Evasion Up)
Evasion group 1, confusingly called Evasion Up in-game when pressing ZR on the character equipment menu, is a property of the target. It consists of almost all bonuses to evasion that do not come from Stances; examples include Fin of Fear and Feather Misanga.

Despite the in-game name, it does not only consist of (although said buff does contribute to this group).

Evasion group 2 (Evasion Chance)
Evasion group 2, called Evasion Chance in-game when pressing ZR on the character equipment menu, is a property of the target. It consists of any bonus to evasion that comes from a Stance, with some outliers:
 * Evasive Posture
 * Dazzling Illusion
 * Inevitable Evitability
 * Evasion Expertise
 * Evasion Expertise

Exceptions to the hit chance formula
If a character uses a which "evades enemy attacks while Art is active", the hit chance formula is bypassed and all attacks will be evaded for the duration of the Art.

Some enemies have certain Arts which bypass the above property. It is conjectured (but not known for certain) that they are also guaranteed to hit.

Fulfilling the condition of the Chaotic Memory will cause an attack to become a guaranteed hit, although it does not override total-evasion Arts.

Attacks on d, ed, and d enemies, as well as those during s, are guaranteed to hit.